Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3430 SLC 12:33 → PDX 13:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1244 SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3430 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:33	PDX 13:38	5%	3%	0.5%	90%
OO 3132 SkyWest	SLC 08:39	PDX 09:44	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	PDX 08:37	5%	2%	0.7%	89%
AS 3308 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 19:27	PDX 20:32	5%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:15	PDX 12:10	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 1373 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	PDX 23:44	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:17	PDX 16:09	10%	3%	0.6%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON