Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 872 American	SLC 07:17	PHL 13:59	9%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	PHL 17:39	12%	3%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 19:09 → PHX 19:50AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Phoenix	PHX 23:08 → PHL 06:52 +1AA 2301	9h 43m	100%	91%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m San Francisco	SFO 08:53 → PHL 17:36UA 2824	9h 31m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	8h 04m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	7h 56m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 +1DL 1114	10h 09m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	9h 24m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	7h 26m	98%	87%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 57m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON