Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3427 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3427 SLC 07:04 → PHX 07:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3871 SLC 16:46 → PHX 17:44 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3427 Southwest	SLC 07:04	PHX 07:45	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:05	PHX 08:44	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 2759 Southwest	SLC 09:11	PHX 09:53	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 6327 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:13	PHX 07:57	7%	3%	0.5%	91%
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:17	PHX 13:02	9%	4%	0.5%	87%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 19:09	PHX 19:50	10%	4%	0.5%	96%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	PHX 12:12	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 1666 Southwest	SLC 14:14	PHX 14:55	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1496 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	PHX 23:31	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 1089 Southwest	SLC 14:43	PHX 15:25	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:20	PHX 16:04	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 4550 Southwest	SLC 18:29	PHX 19:06	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 3871 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 16:46	PHX 17:44	17%	7%	0.9%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON