Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Raleigh/Durham on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 402 Delta	SLC 17:51	RDU 00:06	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:03 → BOS 06:38DL 696	3h 22m Boston	BOS 10:00 → RDU 12:04DL 2118	10h 01m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	99%	92%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	8h 01m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:40 → MCI 17:05DL 2903	2h 56m Kansas City	MCI 20:01 → RDU 23:31DL 4648 · flown by Endeavor	7h 51m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	8h 44m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → RDU 20:57DL 1518	9h 02m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	7h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RDU 00:10 +1DL 2938	8h 35m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON