Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1177 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1177 SLC 07:45 → SAN 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3964 SLC 15:42 → SAN 16:41 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	SAN 08:41	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
AS 3018 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:40	SAN 08:50	9%	4%	0.6%	93%
WN 683 Southwest	SLC 08:04	SAN 09:03	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 3059 SkyWest	SLC 14:34	SAN 15:44	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1202 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:55	SAN 23:50	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	SAN 12:08	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SAN 15:56	16%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	SAN 18:06	17%	4%	0.6%	84%
WN 3964 Southwest	SLC 15:42	SAN 16:41	18%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON