Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 113 SLC 07:59 → SJC 08:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1172 SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 113 SkyWest	SLC 07:59	SJC 08:59	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 3963 SkyWest	SLC 11:50	SJC 12:50	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SJC 16:04	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1172 Delta	SLC 17:31	SJC 18:29	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON