Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1198 SLC 08:00 → SNA 08:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3730 SLC 17:15 → SNA 18:18 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:00	SNA 08:54	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1835 Delta Flight history →	SLC 10:55	SNA 11:50	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:15	SNA 16:09	15%	5%	0.6%	84%
OO 3730 SkyWest	SLC 17:15	SNA 18:18	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON