Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Tampa on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 2077 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:50	TPA 06:01	10%	2%	0.9%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 59m	99%	88%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375	9h 03m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	3h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → TPA 22:26DL 2385	9h 16m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	8h 54m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	6h 35m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	7h 59m	100%	84%
United Details →	SLC 09:46 → IAD 16:13UA 1322	1h 47m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140	8h 53m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:22 → TPA 18:57DL 1594	8h 47m	100%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON