tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 3825 at 17:10, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3825 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 17:10 TUL 20:40 8% 3% 0.5% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 6h 44m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 54m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 8h 44m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 32m Houston IAH 14:29 → TUL 16:10UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 25m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → TUL 12:07AA 2352 6h 07m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:03 → DFW 10:45AA 644 3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:19 → TUL 15:38AA 2851 7h 35m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:00 → DEN 14:46UA 4720 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Denver DEN 17:37 → TUL 20:27UA 1937 6h 27m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON