Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 13:27, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:27	XNA 17:08	7%	3%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:31 → XNA 13:54AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 54m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 23:01 → XNA 00:01 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	9h 26m	99%	90%
American Details →	SLC 07:03 → DFW 10:45AA 644	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:19 → XNA 15:47AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 44m	98%	88%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	88%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	99%	88%
American Details →	SLC 06:16 → ORD 10:33AA 2883	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 11:37 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 10m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:05 → ATL 16:49DL 885	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:34DL 1710	8h 29m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:14 → XNA 18:05DL 2771	8h 55m	100%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON