Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 741 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:30	ATL 14:09	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 904 Delta Flight history →	SMF 12:21	ATL 20:05	8%	3%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	3h 54m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	7h 09m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 49m Seattle	SEA 23:14 → ATL 07:12 +1DL 567	10h 52m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	3h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 40m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 14:15 → ATL 21:59DL 715	9h 38m	99%	85%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 46m Denver	DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:15UA 2806	7h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	10h 54m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 14:31 → ATL 17:55DL 1048	8h 40m	99%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON