Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3678 at 07:24, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3678 Southwest	SMF 07:24	BNA 13:31	5%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	8h 54m	100%	91%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 22m Denver	DEN 09:44 → BNA 13:27UA 355	6h 27m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 13:32 → BNA 15:39DL 8949	7h 24m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 16m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	6h 56m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 15:06 → BNA 21:09DL 858	7h 52m	99%	85%
United Details →	SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264	8h 38m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	10h 20m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON