Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3682 SMF 06:26 → BUR 07:49 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1664 SMF 18:43 → BUR 20:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3682 Southwest	SMF 06:26	BUR 07:49	2%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3683 Southwest	SMF 08:52	BUR 10:16	3%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3689 Southwest	SMF 10:36	BUR 12:00	5%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 3684 Southwest	SMF 12:16	BUR 13:40	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3687 Southwest	SMF 16:52	BUR 18:16	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3685 Southwest	SMF 15:21	BUR 16:41	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1664 Southwest	SMF 18:43	BUR 20:07	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON