Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 2–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3691 SMF 06:57 → DEN 10:21 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 566 SMF 16:19 → DEN 19:45 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3691 Southwest	SMF 06:57	DEN 10:21	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1889 United Flight history →	SMF 05:00	DEN 08:22	3%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 4776 Southwest	SMF 09:35	DEN 12:59	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 2285 United Flight history →	SMF 08:50	DEN 12:16	6%	2%	0.5%	98%
WN 3771 Southwest	SMF 11:54	DEN 15:19	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 791 Southwest	SMF 17:46	DEN 21:10	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1055 United	SMF 11:26	DEN 15:01	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3442 Southwest	SMF 13:54	DEN 17:19	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1961 United Flight history →	SMF 13:00	DEN 16:26	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1841 United Flight history →	SMF 18:37	DEN 21:59	10%	3%	0.6%	82%
F9 3666 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 11:25	DEN 15:00	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 566 United Flight history →	SMF 16:19	DEN 19:45	11%	3%	0.6%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON