Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 191 at 19:44, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 191 Southwest	SMF 19:44	EUG 21:13	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	3h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:55 → EUG 23:55DL 3721 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:11 → SEA 13:14DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Seattle	SEA 15:44 → EUG 17:05DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	91%	76%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:49 → SAN 08:20AS 636	1h 51m San Diego	SAN 10:11 → EUG 12:50AS 2107 · flown by Horizon	6h 01m	92%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 14:09 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	48m San Francisco	SFO 16:20 → EUG 17:55UA 502	3h 46m	74%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON