tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 13:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:15 → IAH 19:10UA 1949 2h 24m Houston IAH 21:34 → EWR 02:06 +1UA 3907 9h 51m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:05 → EWR 16:02UA 2381 8h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 8h 19m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 2h 45m Houston IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 10h 15m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:18 → LAX 12:11UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 3h 59m Los Angeles LAX 16:10 → EWR 00:44 +1UA 1700 11h 26m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 38m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 2h 47m Denver DEN 19:13 → EWR 01:01 +1UA 2093 9h 01m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527 8h 33m 97% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON