Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3916 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3916 SMF 08:58 → HNL 11:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 819 SMF 08:28 → HNL 11:13 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3916 Southwest	SMF 08:58	HNL 11:40	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3278 Southwest	SMF 09:01	HNL 11:19	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 819 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 08:28	HNL 11:13	25%	3%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959	1h 11m Kahului	OGG 12:07 → HNL 13:01AS 1095	7h 31m	93%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON