Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 1742 United Flight history →	SMF 08:09	IAD 16:15	8%	2%	0.6%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 18:37 → DEN 21:59UA 1841	2h 00m Denver	DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924	7h 50m	97%	91%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 58m Denver	DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087	7h 53m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	10h 24m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	8h 49m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	9h 20m	100%	87%
United Details →	SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 14:24 → IAD 17:15UA 587	7h 15m	98%	87%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 37m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	7h 32m	98%	86%
United Details →	SMF 07:47 → LAX 09:32UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	3h 54m Los Angeles	LAX 13:26 → IAD 21:33UA 1164	10h 46m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON