tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2863 United Flight history → SMF 05:15 IAH 11:01 5% 2% 0.6% 93%
UA 1949 United Flight history → SMF 13:15 IAH 19:10 11% 3% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 10m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 24m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:30 → IAH 13:37DL 1532 6h 07m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 42m Denver DEN 10:04 → IAH 13:24UA 2030 6h 24m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:47 → LAX 09:32UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Los Angeles LAX 13:09 → IAH 18:39UA 1084 8h 52m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 6h 08m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489 8h 20m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:31DL 1131 9h 01m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON