Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day


B6 162 JetBlue Flight history →	SMF 22:56	JFK 07:20	20%	5%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	9h 34m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 16:04 → JFK 00:11 +1DL 1044	9h 37m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 45m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	10h 30m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 40m	99%	82%
American Details →	SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:13 → JFK 18:01AA 1058	9h 43m	99%	81%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 03m Phoenix	PHX 09:58 → JFK 18:06AA 2339	9h 06m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON