Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3918 SMF 09:58 → KOA 12:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 842 SMF 10:08 → KOA 12:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3918 Southwest	SMF 09:58	KOA 12:42	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3700 Southwest	SMF 10:02	KOA 12:22	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
AS 968 Alaska	SMF 07:03	KOA 09:37	12%	3%	0.2%	no record
AS 842 Alaska	SMF 10:08	KOA 12:51	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON