Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3701 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3701 SMF 05:34 → LAS 07:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2070 SMF 17:07 → LAS 18:36 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3701 Southwest	SMF 05:34	LAS 07:00	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4555 Southwest	SMF 07:14	LAS 08:40	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1696 Southwest	SMF 08:54	LAS 10:20	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 656 Southwest	SMF 20:08	LAS 21:35	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1056 Southwest	SMF 11:02	LAS 12:28	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4560 Southwest	SMF 18:19	LAS 19:46	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4556 Southwest	SMF 12:37	LAS 14:03	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3702 Southwest	SMF 15:17	LAS 16:43	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 111 Southwest	SMF 16:34	LAS 18:00	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2070 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 17:07	LAS 18:36	16%	5%	0.9%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON