Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 16 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1221 SMF 06:54 → LAX 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1567 SMF 16:13 → LAX 17:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1221 Southwest	SMF 06:54	LAX 08:19	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 3969 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 06:00	LAX 07:40	5%	3%	0.5%	96%
UA 6021 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 10:18	LAX 12:11	6%	4%	0.5%	94%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:17	LAX 12:56	7%	4%	0.5%	94%
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:15	LAX 15:52	8%	4%	0.5%	91%
AA 6265 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:00	LAX 08:41	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:50	LAX 22:44	8%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 2039 Southwest	SMF 10:07	LAX 11:33	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1591 Southwest	SMF 13:02	LAX 14:29	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 5628 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:47	LAX 20:39	9%	4%	0.6%	99%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 09:21	LAX 10:58	9%	4%	0.5%	84%
UA 5390 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:47	LAX 09:32	9%	4%	0.6%	84%
OO 6279 SkyWest	SMF 11:30	LAX 13:03	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:55	LAX 20:39	10%	4%	0.6%	89%
WN 3707 Southwest	SMF 18:01	LAX 19:28	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1567 Southwest	SMF 16:13	LAX 17:40	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON