tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 28m Denver DEN 09:50 → MCI 12:38UA 2159 5h 38m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 27m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 50m Dulles IAD 18:05 → MCI 19:54UA 1165 9h 45m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 59m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 9h 37m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 1h 57m Phoenix PHX 09:52 → MCI 14:52AA 1622 6h 52m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 00m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 34m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 32m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:50 → SAN 08:24AS 636 53m San Diego SAN 09:17 → MCI 14:25AS 297 5h 35m 71% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON