Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2229 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:15	MSP 11:38	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1788 Delta	SMF 13:15	MSP 18:51	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	2h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	7h 10m	99%	91%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 40m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	8h 50m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	10h 45m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	1h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	5h 47m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	7h 42m	99%	87%
United Details →	SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 16:16 → MSP 18:09UA 1935	9h 09m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 18m Portland	PDX 11:05 → MSP 16:20AS 714	6h 07m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON