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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 33% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 959 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:30 OGG 10:56 14% 3% 0.7% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:13 → LAX 07:47AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Los Angeles LAX 09:04 → OGG 11:44AA 271 8h 31m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:14DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 1h 45m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 43m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 50m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 8h 07m 92% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:52 → PDX 13:39AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Portland PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:31AS 353 8h 39m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:57 → SFO 15:02UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 38m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 8h 20m 89% 76%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 3h 08m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 32m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SLC 08:44DL 1526 2h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 09m 98% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:10 → SEA 13:05AS 1365 48m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 8h 49m 33% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON