Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 2–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3717 SMF 06:59 → ONT 08:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1190 SMF 18:42 → ONT 20:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3717 Southwest	SMF 06:59	ONT 08:28	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2405 Southwest	SMF 08:51	ONT 10:20	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1822 Southwest	SMF 11:52	ONT 13:21	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2638 Southwest	SMF 13:27	ONT 14:56	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1473 Southwest	SMF 16:26	ONT 17:56	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1190 Southwest	SMF 18:42	ONT 20:11	10%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON