Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2370 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 2370 SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2797 SMF 14:18 → ORD 20:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2370 United Flight history →	SMF 07:00	ORD 13:10	7%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 1278 United Flight history →	SMF 09:34	ORD 15:40	9%	3%	0.5%	85%
AA 1906 American	SMF 14:58	ORD 21:13	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2797 United	SMF 14:18	ORD 20:19	20%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON