Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4156 SMF 08:21 → PDX 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1706 SMF 11:49 → PDX 13:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4156 Southwest	SMF 08:21	PDX 10:00	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 3726 Southwest	SMF 19:48	PDX 21:26	9%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 2761 Southwest	SMF 14:44	PDX 16:23	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 578 Alaska	SMF 08:04	PDX 09:45	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 308 Alaska	SMF 14:55	PDX 16:36	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1706 Alaska	SMF 11:49	PDX 13:29	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 2095 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 08:13	PDX 09:47	9%	4%	1.5%	91%
AS 2335 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 19:17	PDX 20:50	33%	10%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON