Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1015 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 1015 SMF 06:09 → PHX 08:06 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1677 SMF 12:58 → PHX 14:54 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1015 Southwest	SMF 06:09	PHX 08:06	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1474 Southwest	SMF 08:04	PHX 10:01	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1867 American Flight history →	SMF 06:00	PHX 07:55	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
WN 230 Southwest	SMF 15:04	PHX 17:01	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4679 Southwest	SMF 12:59	PHX 14:56	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3729 Southwest	SMF 18:11	PHX 20:08	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3730 Southwest	SMF 16:17	PHX 18:14	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4070 Envoy	SMF 16:17	PHX 18:22	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	SMF 10:00	PHX 12:11	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	SMF 12:58	PHX 14:54	15%	4%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON