tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3053 at 08:59, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3053 Southwest SMF 08:59 PSP 10:30 4% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 2h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 99% 94%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 99% 93%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:08 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 6h 18m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 37m Phoenix PHX 10:32 → PSP 11:50AA 1884 5h 50m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:20 → PSP 12:41UA 687 7h 41m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → SMF 12:58 → PHX 14:54AA 1677 2h 19m Phoenix PHX 17:13 → PSP 18:25AA 4922 · flown by SkyWest 5h 27m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 05:59 → SEA 07:56AS 1358 2h 09m Seattle SEA 10:05 → PSP 12:37AS 1494 6h 38m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:16 → PSP 20:34UA 2644 7h 34m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SMF 17:14 → SEA 19:10AS 2402 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Seattle SEA 20:10 → PSP 22:44AS 1498 5h 30m 53% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON