Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4566 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4566 SMF 06:22 → SAN 07:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3439 SMF 13:30 → SAN 15:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4566 Southwest	SMF 06:22	SAN 07:56	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	SMF 09:34	SAN 11:09	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4011 Southwest	SMF 15:31	SAN 17:06	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4705 Southwest	SMF 20:04	SAN 21:39	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2854 Southwest	SMF 11:04	SAN 12:39	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3734 Southwest	SMF 12:52	SAN 14:27	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3735 Southwest	SMF 14:04	SAN 15:39	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 505 Southwest	SMF 18:26	SAN 20:01	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3209 SkyWest	SMF 10:41	SAN 12:25	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 1669 Southwest	SMF 16:59	SAN 18:34	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 636 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 06:50	SAN 08:24	20%	3%	1.2%	71%
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 13:30	SAN 15:14	22%	6%	0.7%	77%
AS 2406 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 16:43	SAN 18:20	38%	8%	2.0%	62%
AS 2101 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 10:13	SAN 11:50	43%	11%	2.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON