Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3744 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3744 SMF 06:14 → SEA 08:08 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1437 SMF 17:05 → SEA 19:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3744 Southwest	SMF 06:14	SEA 08:08	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 1358 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 05:59	SEA 07:56	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 3881 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:34	SEA 13:45	10%	4%	0.5%	90%
DL 4125 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 13:00	SEA 15:09	10%	5%	0.5%	93%
DL 4043 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 19:41	SEA 21:57	12%	4%	0.5%	81%
DL 4153 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 17:20	SEA 19:25	13%	4%	0.5%	85%
WN 563 Southwest	SMF 12:56	SEA 14:51	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3096 Southwest	SMF 19:46	SEA 21:39	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
DL 4075 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:53	SEA 10:05	15%	4%	0.5%	89%
AS 692 Alaska	SMF 07:55	SEA 09:52	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1365 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 10:21	SEA 12:16	19%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 406 Alaska	SMF 12:47	SEA 14:43	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1437 Alaska	SMF 17:05	SEA 19:00	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 2402 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 17:14	SEA 19:10	47%	7%	0.0%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON