Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1329 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1329 SMF 05:56 → SFO 07:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5218 SMF 12:16 → SFO 13:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1329 United	SMF 05:56	SFO 07:01	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 5323 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:08	SFO 15:32	18%	6%	0.7%	56%
OO 5218 SkyWest	SMF 12:16	SFO 13:21	19%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON