Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1526 SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 1342 SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1526 Delta Flight history →	SMF 05:30	SLC 08:12	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SMF 09:45	SLC 12:27	5%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1797 Delta	SMF 13:26	SLC 16:14	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SMF 17:00	SLC 19:41	7%	3%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON