Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3755 at 12:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3755 Southwest	SMF 12:15	STL 17:54	14%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	6h 03m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	8h 35m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	9h 32m	99%	85%
American Details →	SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544	3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:43 → STL 16:40AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	9h 22m	99%	84%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652	5h 42m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → STL 19:00DL 1492	7h 15m	99%	82%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	57m Houston	IAH 11:58 → STL 14:20UA 2042	7h 05m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 +1DL 2666	5h 41m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON