Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 721 SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 1521 SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 721 Delta Flight history →	SNA 06:45	ATL 14:19	8%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 329 Delta Flight history →	SNA 14:00	ATL 21:38	16%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 1521 Delta Flight history →	SNA 12:15	ATL 19:49	18%	5%	0.7%	85%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	49m Las Vegas	LAS 22:06 → ATL 05:09 +1DL 417	6h 10m	92%	85%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 17m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 45m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Las Vegas	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	6h 39m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON