tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 1579 at 07:34, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1579 Southwest SNA 07:34 AUS 12:21 6% 2% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 13:18 → AUS 17:07DL 2689 7h 52m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 34m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 3h 26m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 8h 03m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 3h 05m Chicago ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312 10h 17m 97% 85%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:02 → DFW 14:07AA 1686 3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:24 → AUS 18:32AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 7h 30m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 15:05 → IAH 20:27UA 643 1h 48m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 6h 07m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:02 → IAH 17:33UA 2044 2h 45m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 7h 23m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 13m Houston IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711 7h 42m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 47m Seattle SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372 7h 46m 58% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON