tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 523 at 12:13, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 523 Alaska SNA 12:13 BOI 15:31 13% 3% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 06m Portland PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon 4h 49m 96% 91%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 2h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111 6h 02m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 2h 02m Phoenix PHX 10:18 → BOI 13:42AA 4080 · flown by Envoy 5h 56m 97% 88%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:34 → SEA 13:26AS 1378 2h 19m Seattle SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon 6h 37m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198 3h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920 7h 01m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → BOI 23:55UA 6027 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 100% 86%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:55 → PDX 13:19AS 1405 1h 39m Portland PDX 14:58 → BOI 17:16AS 342 5h 21m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 12m Denver DEN 15:55 → BOI 17:56UA 2602 6h 36m 100% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 51m Seattle SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 58% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON