tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 2h 02m Denver DEN 14:11 → BWI 19:49UA 363 8h 04m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 8h 56m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774 1h 16m Seattle SEA 21:36 → BWI 05:41 +1AS 781 9h 09m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 7h 15m 90% 80%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 18:09 → BWI 19:47AA 2855 9h 31m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 1h 37m Chicago ORD 14:46 → BWI 17:52UA 2737 8h 07m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:23 → DFW 15:28AA 2114 1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:07 → BWI 21:25AA 2251 8h 02m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 1h 18m Chicago ORD 18:11 → BWI 21:11UA 1557 7h 34m 86% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON