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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2177 American Flight history → SNA 07:16 CLT 15:15 12% 3% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → CLT 19:21DL 3158 9h 36m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 43m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 09:57 → CLT 17:15AA 665 7h 29m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 39m Chicago ORD 16:47 → CLT 19:58AA 3188 9h 13m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:37 → ORD 17:57AA 2285 2h 57m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 9h 22m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:44 → CLT 18:37AA 3227 8h 51m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:02 → DFW 14:07AA 1686 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703 9h 42m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:23 → DFW 15:28AA 2114 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:42 → CLT 22:23AA 3002 9h 00m 96% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 14:32 → DFW 19:52AA 2465 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → CLT 00:32 +1AA 460 7h 00m 73% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON