tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 12:02, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:02 → IAH 17:33UA 2044 2h 17m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 57m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 52m Houston IAH 16:59 → DCA 21:16UA 235 10h 31m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 8h 37m 94% 79%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02AA 1382 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:55 → DCA 19:15AA 2520 9h 29m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:23 → DFW 15:28AA 2114 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → DCA 23:03AA 472 9h 40m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 8h 52m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 58m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 7h 09m 89% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:16 → CLT 15:15AA 2177 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 16:44 → DCA 18:28AA 2002 8h 12m 97% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 47m Chicago ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00AA 2769 7h 15m 75% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON