Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1425 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1425 SNA 06:42 → DEN 09:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 680 SNA 12:58 → DEN 16:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1425 Southwest	SNA 06:42	DEN 09:55	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 323 United	SNA 06:58	DEN 10:41	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 489 United Flight history →	SNA 08:45	DEN 12:09	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 4135 Southwest	SNA 10:09	DEN 13:22	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2843 United Flight history →	SNA 10:20	DEN 13:43	9%	3%	0.6%	99%
UA 2656 United Flight history →	SNA 18:26	DEN 21:47	12%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 4570 Southwest	SNA 13:33	DEN 16:46	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3759 Southwest	SNA 15:22	DEN 18:36	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1048 United	SNA 16:05	DEN 19:20	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 680 United	SNA 12:58	DEN 16:12	18%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON