Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1382 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 1382 SNA 06:46 → DFW 12:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1939 SNA 12:17 → DFW 17:35 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1382 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	DFW 12:02	6%	3%	1.2%	89%
AA 3170 American	SNA 08:04	DFW 13:22	10%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 1686 American Flight history →	SNA 09:02	DFW 14:07	13%	4%	1.1%	88%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	SNA 10:23	DFW 15:28	15%	5%	1.1%	78%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:29	DFW 21:34	16%	5%	1.2%	80%
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SNA 14:32	DFW 19:52	18%	7%	1.1%	79%
AA 1933 American	SNA 13:43	DFW 19:05	18%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 1939 American	SNA 12:17	DFW 17:35	20%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON