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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 1328 at 12:36, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1328 Delta SNA 12:36 DTW 19:50 26% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 10h 28m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185 2h 36m Minneapolis MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476 7h 59m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:37 → ORD 17:56AA 2285 3h 20m Chicago ORD 21:16 → DTW 23:51AA 4012 · flown by Envoy 9h 14m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244 9h 00m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940 9h 44m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Las Vegas LAS 15:11 → DTW 22:17DL 778 8h 32m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587 2h 19m Chicago ORD 15:28 → DTW 17:47UA 2632 8h 02m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 09:57 → DTW 17:05AA 1728 7h 19m 97% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 59m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DTW 23:44UA 349 6h 34m 74% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON