Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2186 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2186 SNA 21:15 → EWR 05:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1559 SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2186 United Flight history →	SNA 21:15	EWR 05:33	7%	2%	1.2%	90%
UA 661 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	EWR 15:21	11%	4%	1.1%	91%
UA 1559 United Flight history →	SNA 12:29	EWR 20:56	30%	14%	1.0%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 32m Denver	DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:33UA 1505	7h 48m	95%	68%
United Details →	SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	7h 43m	79%	58%
United Details →	SNA 06:45 → ORD 13:09UA 587	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 14:11 → EWR 17:16UA 2466	7h 31m	90%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON