tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Bush, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 40m Houston IAH 16:47 → FLL 20:34UA 277 9h 49m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 46m Denver DEN 13:55 → FLL 19:59UA 1384 8h 14m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670 9h 58m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 9h 24m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → SNA 14:32 → DFW 19:52AA 2465 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:05 → FLL 01:14 +1AA 1847 7h 42m 91% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 06:45 → EWR 15:21UA 661 2h 37m Newark EWR 17:58 → FLL 21:08UA 2096 11h 23m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:02 → IAH 17:33UA 2044 53m Houston IAH 18:26 → FLL 22:04UA 1956 7h 02m 80% 66%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:45 → ORD 14:08AA 2590 2h 54m Chicago ORD 17:02 → FLL 21:22AA 2881 10h 37m 97% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:37 → ORD 16:53UA 2426 53m Chicago ORD 17:46 → FLL 21:43UA 463 8h 06m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON