tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 688 United SNA 08:21 IAD 16:31 8% 4% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m San Francisco SFO 21:22 → IAD 05:32 +1UA 705 10h 20m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SNA 18:26 → DEN 21:47UA 2656 2h 12m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 8h 01m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 10h 09m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 2h 11m San Francisco SFO 23:16 → IAD 07:40 +1UA 2111 9h 13m 96% 84%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 57m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 7h 51m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 28m Houston IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388 10h 01m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 44m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 37m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:02 → IAH 17:33UA 2044 2h 50m Houston IAH 20:23 → IAD 00:40 +1UA 1968 9h 38m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 54m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 7h 50m 66% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON