Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:00, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 556 Delta Flight history →	SNA 21:00	JFK 05:27	7%	3%	2.9%	89%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	SNA 11:34	JFK 20:04	30%	12%	1.4%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 23:42 → JFK 07:21 +1DL 1159	8h 22m	100%	90%
American Details →	SNA 16:28 → PHX 18:06AA 2463	3h 44m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 19m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	SNA 17:32 → SEA 20:20AS 774	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	11h 06m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SNA 12:15 → ATL 19:49DL 1521	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → JFK 00:55 +1DL 1632	9h 40m	94%	80%
American Details →	SNA 12:27 → PHX 13:56AA 2454	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	8h 31m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	8h 35m	97%	75%
Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	1h 23m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	9h 23m	99%	74%
American Details →	SNA 06:46 → PHX 08:16AA 628	1h 42m Phoenix	PHX 09:58 → JFK 18:06AA 2339	8h 20m	97%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON