Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 136 SNA 06:59 → LAS 08:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4073 SNA 14:14 → LAS 15:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 136 Southwest	SNA 06:59	LAS 08:10	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1639 Southwest	SNA 15:48	LAS 17:06	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4899 Southwest	SNA 08:55	LAS 10:06	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4576 Southwest	SNA 18:13	LAS 19:26	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:59	LAS 21:17	8%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:45	LAS 12:04	8%	4%	0.6%	87%
WN 3762 Southwest	SNA 11:30	LAS 12:41	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4073 Southwest	SNA 14:14	LAS 15:26	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON